basiscraft: BAS Crime Notes

Summary

These are just notes taken while tinkering about with some crime numbers to see if the Berkeley Adult School is, as some of its neighbors think, a crime magnet.

Those neighbors looked at crime trends around the school, 2005…2008. Their analysis doesn't shed much light other than that crime trended up in that area for some reason.

Here, I've compared that BAS area to the city overall and to some somewhat randomly chosen other parts of the city.

The data shows West Berkeley locations experiencing crime increases while foothills locations saw decreases. The city overall saw decreases.

The West Berkeley crime inceases are comparable to one another but the BAS area is perhaps the worst of those sampled.

Among the the five locations sampled, the BAS area comes out in first place (highest increases in crime) in 2006 and 2008, but only comes in 3rd or 4th place in 2007 (depending on how you measure it).

The main conclusion:

If the Berkeley Adult School Neighbors really want to prove that BAS is already a crime magnet, they need more than just these 2005-2008 crime trends for a three block area around the school. The sampling I did here suggests those numbers are inconclusive because they do not clearly distinguish the situation around BAS from the situation around similar parts of West Berkeley.

If they neighbors can show that their neighboorhood really is getting the worst of the crime, the next question is how to link that to BAS. Older crime numbers (from before BAS located there) would be helpful, but don't seem to be readily available.

Links

Background

Berkeley is contemplating locating a Community Day School (CDS) on the site of the Berkeley Adult School (BAS). A group called the Berkeley Adult School Neighbors (BASN) disapproves, mainly citing concerns about increased crime.

What a CDS?

The school district (BUSD) is legally obligated to provide an education to those students whom it expels. Suspension and expulsion remove a student from the school they are in, but the students are still required to attend school and the district required to provide them a school to attend. The proposed Community Day School will combine a highly structured learning environment for some expelled students with a home base for other expelled students who are working on "independent study" (typically towards a GED).

Because of the nature of expulsion, in many cases the students who would attend the CDS are likely to be in trouble with the law.

What is the BAS?

The Berkeley Adult School offers GED preparation, vocational training, and lifelong learning opportunities to adults.

Some students of BAS are ex-felons. Some are on parol.

What is BASN?

The Berkeley Adult School Neighbors (BASN) are a neighborhood advocacy group opposed to locating the CDS at the BAS.

BASN's main concern for their neighborhood relates to crime. They believe that locating BAS in their neighborhood in 2006 led to an increase in crime and they fear that adding the CDS will make things worse.

To make their case that BAS has made crime worse, BASN examines crime trends from 2005 to 2008. Those numbers are examined below.

To make their case that the CDS would make crime worse, BASN points to elevated rates of crime near the Berkeley High School and Berkeley Technical School.

The BAS Crime Question

Here is a reproduction of BASN's crime chart for a three block area surrounding BAS (which moved to this location in 2004).

Crime w/in Three Blocks of BAS
Category	2005	2006	2007	2008
Accident	83	0	0	0
Aggravated Assault	0	14	1	0
Alcohol violations	33	61	49	59
Arson	0	0	0	8
Auto Burglary	115	134	138	179
Burglary	56	61	70	64
Disturbances	37	227	242	302
Narcotics violations	0	34	32	30
No category	38	0	0	0
Robbery	0	30	31	29
Stolen Auto	80	80	84	83
Theft	165	145	139	152
Vandalism	63	43	75	77

Berkeley Overall

Here is a similar chart for all of Berkeley:

Crime City-wide
Category	2005	2006	2007	2008
Accident	1496	184	-	-
Aggravated Assault	105	169	127	80
Alcohol Violations	486	692	719	679
Arson	26	32	28	29
Auto Burglary	2563	2362	2402	2082
Battery	693	89	-	-
Burglary	1266	1227	1310	1181
Disturbances	695	5156	4743	5116
No Category	637	71	-	-
Narcotics Violations	383	712	542	429
Prostitution	53	140	117	177
Robbery	396	436	468	501
Stolen Auto	1278	1265	1164	1099
Theft	3026	3224	2992	3021
Vandalism	1099	809	847	834

Comparables

The charts include some catagories which are either not relevant or are impossible to compare:

Cateogry Accident is not a crime category and has incomplete data in the city-wide table.

Category Battery is not provided in the BASN data.

Category Prostitution is not provided in the BASN data.

Category No Category has unclear meaning and is not available for all years in the city-side table.

Including "Disturbances"

The category Disturbances is problematic but left in for now.

Discarding all other problematic categories and looking at the percentage changes, year over year:

From BASN

Crime w/in Three Blocks of BAS
Category	2005	2006	2007	2008
Aggravated Assault	0	14	1	0
Alcohol violations	33	61	49	59
Arson	0	0	0	8
Auto Burglary	115	134	138	179
Burglary	56	61	70	64
Disturbances	37	227	242	302
Narcotics violations	0	34	32	30
Robbery	0	30	31	29
Stolen Auto	80	80	84	83
Theft	165	145	139	152
Vandalism	63	43	75	77
total	549	829	861	983
% previous year		151	104	114
% 2005		151	157	179

City Overall

Crime City-wide
Category	2005	2006	2007	2008
Aggravated Assault	105	169	127	80
Alcohol Violations	486	692	719	679
Arson	26	32	28	29
Auto Burglary	2563	2362	2402	2082
Burglary	1266	1227	1310	1181
Disturbances	695	5156	4743	5116
Narcotics Violations	383	712	542	429
Robbery	396	436	468	501
Stolen Auto	1278	1265	1164	1099
Theft	3026	3224	2992	3021
Vandalism	1099	809	847	834
total	11323	16084	15342	15051
% previous year		142	95	98
% 2005		142	135	133

Discarding "Disturbances"

The "disturbances" numbers look odd between 2005 and 2006 in both the BASN numbers and the city overall numbers. In both cases, there is a huge leap. The BASN site has a comment that suggests that there was a change in recording processes at that time.

"Disturbances" are relevant to the debate but because the way they are counted seems to have changed, what happens if we omit them?:

From BASN

Crime w/in Three Blocks of BAS
Category	2005	2006	2007	2008
Aggravated Assault	0	14	1	0
Alcohol violations	33	61	49	59
Arson	0	0	0	8
Auto Burglary	115	134	138	179
Burglary	56	61	70	64
Narcotics violations	0	34	32	30
Robbery	0	30	31	29
Stolen Auto	80	80	84	83
Theft	165	145	139	152
Vandalism	63	43	75	77
total	512	602	619	681
% previous year		118	103	110
% 2005		118	121	133

City Overall

Crime City-wide
Category	2005	2006	2007	2008
Aggravated Assault	105	169	127	80
Alcohol Violations	486	692	719	679
Arson	26	32	28	29
Auto Burglary	2563	2362	2402	2082
Burglary	1266	1227	1310	1181
Narcotics Violations	383	712	542	429
Robbery	396	436	468	501
Stolen Auto	1278	1265	1164	1099
Theft	3026	3224	2992	3021
Vandalism	1099	809	847	834
total	10628	10928	10599	9935
% previous year		103	97	94
% 2005		103	100	93

Crime Within Two Blocks of 1140 Bancroft Way

Crime Within Two Blocks of 1140 Bancroft Way
Category	2005	2006	2007	2008
Aggravated Assault	0	0	11	0
Alcohol Violations	22	19	26	16
Arson	0	0	0	0
Auto Burglary	32	42	34	55
Burglary	17	25	29	34
Narcotics Violations	0	39	21	12
Robbery	0	0	21	14
Stolen Auto	32	21	33	21
Theft	34	45	58	45
Vandalism	43	21	32	35
total	180	212	265	232
% previous year		118	125	88
% 2005		118	147	129

Crime Within Two Blocks of 2100 Emerson St.

Crime Within Two Blocks of 2100 Emerson
Category	2005	2006	2007	2008
Aggravated Assault	0	0	1	2
Alcohol Violations	0	9	10	10
Arson	0	0	0	0
Auto Burglary	51	62	66	49
Burglary	30	41	50	43
Narcotics Violations	0	7	14	5
Robbery	15	20	29	17
Stolen Auto	29	31	32	23
Theft	74	58	55	23
Vandalism	24	15	17	16
total	223	243	274	188
% previous year		109	113	69
% 2005		109	123	84

Crime Within Two Blocks of 1900 Francisco St.

Crime Within Two Blocks of 1900 Francisco St.
Category	2005	2006	2007	2008
Aggravated Assault	0	0	5	0
Alcohol Violations	16	25	19	19
Arson	0	0	0	0
Auto Burglary	90	72	101	64
Burglary	40	18	35	38
Narcotics Violations	0	4	8	5
Robbery	16	6	12	11
Stolen Auto	35	44	44	39
Theft	72	84	61	76
Vandalism	24	21	18	23
total	293	274	303	275
% previous year		94	111	91
% 2005		94	103	94

Crime Within Three Blocks of 1222 Allston St.

Crime Within Three Blocks of 1222 Allston St.
Category	2005	2006	2007	2008
Aggravated Assault	0	13	0	0
Alcohol Violations	52	69	78	78
Arson	0	0	0	0
Auto Burglary	97	138	124	160
Burglary	56	55	63	76
Narcotics Violations	36	61	37	32
Robbery	0	32	45	40
Stolen Auto	68	63	80	60
Theft	188	160	164	169
Vandalism	81	50	65	72
total	578	641	656	687
% previous year		111	102	105
% 2005		111	113	119

Comparison Summary

Comparing Crime Report % Changes
	2006	2007	2008
City-wide
% previous year	103	97	94
% 2005		100	93
w/in 3 blocks 1222 Allston
% previous year	111	102	105
% 2005		113	119
w/in 2 Blocks 1140 Bancroft
% previous year	118	125	88
% 2005		147	129
w/in 3 blocks BAS
% previous year	118	103	110
% 2005		121	133
w/in 2 blocks 2100 Emerson
% previous year	109	113	69
% 2005		123	84
w/in 2 blocks 1900 Francisco
% previous year	94	111	91
% 2005		103	94

Ranking:

BAS Area Ranking (out of 5)
	2006	2007	2008
by % previous year	1	4	1
by % 2005	1	3	1

basiscraft: BAS Crime Notes

Table of Contents

Summary

Links

Background

What a CDS?

What is the BAS?

What is BASN?

The BAS Crime Question

Berkeley Overall

Comparables

Including "Disturbances"

From BASN

City Overall

Discarding "Disturbances"

From BASN

City Overall

Crime Within Two Blocks of 1140 Bancroft Way

Crime Within Two Blocks of 2100 Emerson St.

Crime Within Two Blocks of 1900 Francisco St.

Crime Within Three Blocks of 1222 Allston St.

Comparison Summary