basiscraft: Re "2010 Census: Redistricting Process and Timeline"
Table of Contents
Links
- 2010 Census: Redistricting Process and Timeline This is a memo from City Mgr. Phil Kamlarz to the Council for the June 14, 2011 special meeting. (a local copy of the memo)
- Berkeley City Charter Article V Section 9 The relevant part of the city charter.
Highlights
- Because of the 2010 Census, it's time to redistrict Berkeley.
- The deadline (per city charter) is December 31, 2013
- City Staff wants to redistrict in time for the November 6, 2012 election.
- The public can submit redistricting proposals, but probably must use some somewhat fancy software to create them if they do.
- Per the City Charter, redistricting should preserve existing boundaries as much as is "practical" but it must result in districts of roughly equal population.
- Right now, district populations are poorly balanced.
- Redistricting will likely add voters to districts 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6. Districts 5, 6, and 3 will likely gain the most.
- Redistricting will likely remove voters from districts 4, 7, and 8. District 7 will likely lose the most voters although the other two will likely lose a large number.
- The November 6, 2012 election is for "Mayor, Council Districts 2, 3, 5, 6, Rent Board (4 seats), School Board (2 seats)"
- Enough votes may change to swing district elections, but it would be foolish to make a specific prediction.
- In 2001, in response to the 2000 Census, the City disputed the count for district 7, asserting that it was too low. Staff in 2011 reminds us that the Census Bureau declined to adjust the count at that time.
Reading Notes on the Memo
These notes follow the structure of the memo itself.
"Recommendation"
The topic of the memo is a process and timeline for adjusting council districts in light of the 2010 census. Adjustment of the districts is provided for by the city charter.
This is Something NEW!
The current council districts are established in the charter not by ordinance. The current district boundaries were established for the 1986 election.
The charter was amended when the current districts were established. Among the amendments was a new rule: beginning with the 2010 census, district boundaries would be adjusted by ordinance.
So, this is the first time the incumbant council gets to pass a simple ordinance to change the districts.
What The Charter Says
Here is what the charter itself has to say about adjusting district boundaries:
The Council shall, by ordinance, adjust if necessary the boundaries of the Council districts herein set forth by December 31st of the third year following the year in which each decennial federal census is taken, commencing with the 2010 census, as provided and required in the Constitution and statutes of the State of California and in order that the eight Council districts shall continue to be as nearly equal in population as may be according to said census. Any such redistricting shall preserve, to the extent possible, the Council districts originally established herein and shall become effective as of the next general election of Councilmembers immediately following the effective date of said ordinance.
"Current Situation and Its Effects"
The official census population grew by 9,836 between 2000 and 2010.
The memo says:
The City Charter requires that the City adjust the City Council district boundaries in response to that increased population count.
The memo appears to interpret the following language of the charter as the most immediate source of requirement to redistrict (emphasis added):
The Council shall, by ordinance, adjust if necessary the boundaries of the Council districts herein set forth by December 31st of the third year following the year in which each decennial federal census is taken, commencing with the 2010 census, […] in order that the eight Council districts shall continue to be as nearly equal in population as may be according to said census. [….]
According to the memo, California Elections code contains a similar requirement.
Aimed at the November 2012 Elections
The memo explains why staff would like to complete redistricting "ahead of schedule" – more than a year earlier than is required by the charter:
The deadline in the City Charter to complete the redistricting process is December 31, 2013. However, staff is proposing a timeline that would enable completion by April 1, 2012 in order to allow the new districts to be in place for the November 2012 municipal election. The proposed timeline is included in Attachment 1.
"Data Analysis"
A Minor Glitch in the Census Data
For the purposes of redistricting, it is important to know not only how many people live in Berkeley, but where exactly everyone lives.
The geographic distribution of population data from Census Bureau has an odd quirk: some 1,392 people are recorded as living on the median strips of divided roads.
After informal discussion with the Census bureau City staff concluded
- the population count is accurate
- in these cases, those apparently living on a median strip actually live on one side of the divided road
- which side of the road they live on matters, as some of these median strips are the boundaries between current districts
- the Census bureau suggested a method for determining which side these people really live on
- City staff is confident in the Census bureau's suggested method
If Council would rather not take the staff's word for this, they can ask the City Manager to draft a formal query for the Census bureau (a CQR or Count Question Resolution).
Staff recommends against filing a CQR because it will delay the completion of redistricting by an unknown amount and because staff is confident of the informal problem resolution they've reached.
Equal District Population
Thousands of votes are at stake. That is to say, Berkeley's current districts are significantly, unevently populated. The staff offers this table:
| District | 2010 Equal Dist. Pop. | 2010 Actual Dist. Pop. | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| District 1 | 14073 | 13080 | (993) |
| District 2 | 14073 | 13381 | (692) |
| District 3 | 14073 | 13024 | (1049) |
| District 4 | 14073 | 15605 | 1532 |
| District 5 | 14073 | 12709 | (1364) |
| District 6 | 14073 | 12883 | (1190) |
| District 7 | 14073 | 16623 | 2550 |
| District 8 | 14073 | 15275 | 1202 |
Another way to say that:
- districts 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6 are a total of 5288 people short
- districts 4, 7, and 8 have a total of 5285 too many people
(The difference between 5288 and 5285 is an unimportant rounding error in the City's table.)
To put that in persepctive, a redistricting that left all people living in districts of equal population would change the district of about 4.7% of the population.
NOTE: While redistricting may change the district of approximately 5285 people, the number of votes at stake is smaller. That is because the population counts include all persons, of any age.
"Process and Timeline"
The public will have a brief opportunity to propose redistricting maps. City staff will consider these and public hearings will begin in September.
The table in the memo sums this up more digestably than the narrative text:
- July 11, 2011: Public Packets Ready
"Complete packets of public hearing dates, timelines, process, maps and data available for the public at the City Clerk Department and available on the Cityâs website."
- August 19, 2011: Redistricting Proposals due!
"Last day for public or councilmembers to submit a redistricting proposal to the City Clerk. Proposals must be submitted in the format established by the City Council."
- Sept. 15, 2011: Submitted Proposals Published
"All redistricting proposals to be made available to the public through the City Clerk and published on the City's website."
NOTE: At this time, City staff will identify technical flaws in any submitted proposals (e.g., a failure to ensure roughly equal sized districts). Submittors may ammend proposals with technical corrections until Oct 7, 2011 (see below).
- Sept. 27, 2011: First Public Hearing
Agenda Packet Delivered Sept 15, 2011.
"First Public Hearing by Council on proposals to adjust boundaries of a district. (EC 21620.1)"
- October 7, 2011: Technical Corrections Due
"Technical corrections due from original submitters in response to staff analysis."
- November 8, 2011: Second Public Hearing
Agenda Packet Delivered October 27, 2011.
"Second Public Hearing by Council on redistricting proposals. (EC 21620.1)"
- December 13, 2011: Final Proposal Delivered to Council
Agenda Packet Delivered December 1, 2011.
"Final proposal in form of ordinance. Council adopts first reading of ordinance establishing new district boundaries. (Charter Art. V, Sec. 9)"
- January 17, 2012: Adoption of New District Boundaries
Agenda Packet Delivered January 5, 2012.
"Council adopts second reading of ordinance establishing new district boundaries. (Charter Art. V, Sec. 9)"
- April 1, 2012: New District Report to County Due
"Alameda County Registrar of Voters deadline to submit new boundary lines and maps for November 2012 election."
- June 1, 2012 .. July 26, 2012: Candidate Signature Gathering
"Signatures In Lieu of Filing Fee Period for November 2012 election."
- July 16, 2012 – August 10, 2012: Candidate Filing Period
"Candidate Filing Period for November 6, 2012 election."
- November 6, 2012: Election
"Mayor, Council Districts 2, 3, 5, 6, Rent Board (4 seats), School Board (2 seats)"
- December 31, 2013: Chartered Deadline
Per staff's plan, by this date not only is redistricting complete but it has already been used in one election (in 2012). Nevertheless, per the City Charter, this is an important deadline:
"Charter deadline for Council to adjust boundaries by ordinance. Districts shall be as nearly equal in population and be preserved to the extent possible to the Council districts as originally established. (Charter Art. V, Sec. 9)"
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